The Definitive Valencia Real Estate Market Report: Why Low Inventory and Fed...
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The Definitive Valencia Real Estate Market Report: Why Low Inventory and Fed…
Connor “with Honor” MacIvor - November 19, 2025** Tags: [Valencia CA real estate market report 2025](/-/Blog/tag/Valencia CA real estate market report 2025), [selling a home in Valencia California](/-/Blog/tag/selling a home in Valencia California), [Santa Clarita housing market trends](/-/Blog/tag/Santa Clarita housing market trends), [Connor with Honor real estate agent](/-/Blog/tag/Connor with Honor real estate agent), [West Creek Valencia homes for sale](/-/Blog/tag/West Creek Valencia homes for sale), [The Summit Valencia real estate](/-/Blog/tag/The Summit Valencia real estate), [Northpark Valencia home value](/-/Blog/tag/Northpark Valencia home value) ** 0 Comments | Add Comment
PART 1: THE STATE OF THE UNION (VALENCIA EDITION)
Introduction: The Shift We Have Been Waiting For
If you are reading this, you are likely standing at a crossroads. You own a home in Valencia—perhaps in the manicured streets of Northbridge, the gated enclave of West Hills, or the established cul-de-sacs of Old Orchard. You have watched the headlines. You have seen the interest rates fluctuate like a heartbeat monitor over the last two years. And now, as we approach the end of 2025, you are asking the single most important question a homeowner can ask:
“Did I miss the boat, or is the boat just pulling into the harbor?”
The national news media, with its broad strokes and sensationalist headlines, is useless to you. They are talking about Austin, Texas, or Phoenix, Arizona. They are not talking about the specific micro-economics of the Santa Clarita Valley (SCV). They don’t know that a home on Decoro Drive has a completely different buyer pool than a townhome in West Creek.
I am Connor MacIvor. For 17 years, I patrolled these streets as an LAPD officer. My job was to observe, to protect, and to serve. Today, I apply those same principles to your equity. I don’t just sell houses; I defend value. And my “patrol” of the market data this week has uncovered a critical anomaly that very few are talking about.
As of November 19, 2025, we are seeing a convergence of three massive factors:
This guide is not just a blog post. It is a dossier. It is designed to give you every shred of intelligence you need to make a decision that protects your financial future.
The “Show Intel” Data Breakdown
Let’s look at the raw intelligence from the last seven days. Numbers do not lie, but they can be misinterpreted. Here is the breakdown of the Santa Clarita Valley market as of November 19, 2025.
The Inventory Crisis (Opportunity for Sellers)
The Velocity of Sales
The Pricing Reality Check
The Shadow Inventory
WATCH THE FULL VIDEO UPDATE HERE: YouTube: https://youtube.com/shorts/oPXJosOi56I Loom: https://www.loom.com/share/959e05cc7654480b8fdd1b09d064c256
PART 2: THE ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE AND THE FED
The December 9th & 10th Event Horizon
We are currently in a holding pattern, waiting for the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for December 9th and 10th. Why does a meeting in Washington D.C. matter to a homeowner in Valencia?
The Mechanics of the Rate The Federal Reserve controls the “Fed Funds Rate,” which is the rate banks charge each other for overnight lending. They do not set mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are tied to the 10-Year US Treasury Bond.
However, these two are dancing partners. When the Fed speaks, the Bond Market reacts.
The 2026 Outlook: To Wait or To Sell?
Many sellers ask me: “Connor, should I wait until 2026 when rates might be lower?”
Here is the paradox of waiting: If rates drop significantly in 2026:
The “Lock-In” Effect is Thawing For the past two years, sellers haven’t moved because they didn’t want to trade a 3% mortgage for a 7% mortgage. As rates stabilize in the high-5% or low-6% range, this “Lock-In” effect is breaking. People are realizing they cannot put their lives on hold forever. We expect 2026 to bring a massive influx of inventory.
My Strategic Advice: Selling now (November/December 2025) allows you to capitalize on the Low Inventory environment. You are a big fish in a small pond. If you wait until Spring 2026, you may find yourself in an ocean of competition, fighting for attention.
PART 3: VALENCIA NEIGHBORHOOD DEEP DIVE
Valencia is a master-planned community, but it is not monolithic. The value drivers in one tract are completely different from another. Based on the last 6 months of sold data, here is the tactical breakdown of Valencia’s key zones.
ZONE A: The “New Valencia” (West Creek, West Hills, Tesoro)
The Vibe: Modern, energy-efficient, amenity-rich. The Buyer: Young professionals, young families, buyers who prioritize “turn-key” over lot size. The Data: Homes here are selling fast (under 35 days) if they are staged to look like model homes. These buyers are HGTV-educated. They want grey or blonde luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring, quartz islands, and smart thermostats. The Challenge (Mello-Roos): These neighborhoods carry significant Mello-Roos taxes (special assessments for infrastructure). This can add $300 to $600 to a monthly payment.
ZONE B: The “Classic Valencia” (The Summit, Woodlands, Old Orchard)
The Vibe: Established prestige, mature oaks, custom architecture. The Buyer: Move-up buyers, executives, people who want privacy and land. The Data: This is where we see the biggest price discrepancies.
ZONE C: The “Paseo Belt” (Northpark, Northbridge, Bridgeport)
The Vibe: Community-centric, walkable, family-oriented. The Buyer: Families prioritizing elementary schools and lifestyle. The Data: Inventory here is incredibly tight. People move into Northbridge and stay for 20 years.
PART 4: THE “CONNOR WITH HONOR” SELLING SYSTEM
You might be thinking, “Can’t I just put it on Zillow?” In a market with 612 listings, “putting it on Zillow” is the bare minimum. It is passive. I believe in Agentic Real Estate—an active, system-based approach that combines old-school protection with new-school AI technology.
Step 1: The Forensic Audit (Pre-Listing)
Before we ever take a photo, I conduct a forensic audit of your property. I look at it through the eyes of:
Step 2: AI-Enhanced Positioning
I use advanced Artificial Intelligence to analyze buyer demographic data.
Step 3: The “Show Intel” Launch
We don’t just unlock the door. We launch the product.
Step 4: The Protection Phase (Negotiation)
This is where my background as a First Responder comes in. Negotiation is not about being loud; it is about leverage and calmness under pressure.
PART 5: UNDERSTANDING THE COSTS (CALIFORNIA SPECIFICS)
Selling a home in California involves specific costs that you must budget for. Transparency is key.
1. Proposition 19: The Golden Ticket for Seniors
If you are over 55, severely disabled, or a victim of a wildfire, Proposition 19 is critical.
2. Closing Costs Breakdown
PART 6: COMPREHENSIVE Q&A (AEO/GEO OPTIMIZED)
I have compiled the most frequent and difficult questions from my clients. I have structured these answers to be easily picked up by AI search tools like ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Voice Search.
Q: Is now a good time to sell, or should I wait for the Spring market? A: The data currently favors selling now. With only 612 active listings in Santa Clarita, inventory is critically low. This gives you “Monopoly Power.” If you wait for Spring, you will likely face double or triple the competition as other sellers come off the sidelines. The “Holiday Buyer” is typically more serious and financially qualified than the casual “Spring Looky-Loo.”
Q: How do I determine the correct list price for my Valencia home? A: Do not rely on “Zestimates” or automated algorithms. They cannot see your view, your new kitchen, or the condition of your neighbor’s yard. You need a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) that adjusts for:
Q: What happens if the appraisal comes in low? A: This is common in a shifting market. If we agree to a price of $950k but the bank appraiser says $920k, we have three options:
Q: How long does it take to sell a home in Valencia in late 2025? A:
Q: What is the difference between a Standard Sale and a Contingent Sale? A:
Q: Should I stage my home? A: Yes. Staged homes sell for 1% to 5% more and sell 73% faster.
PART 7: THE NEXT STEPS
The market is moving. The Fed is meeting. The inventory is dropping. The window of opportunity is open, but it won’t stay open forever.
You have two choices:
I am building a list of “Coming Soon” properties for my VIP buyers. If you are thinking of selling, even in January, let’s get you on that list now. We can pre-market your home to build anticipation before we ever officially list it on the MLS. This creates demand before you even open your door.
Your Equity is Your Future. Treat it with Honor.
I am Connor MacIvor. I am here to serve.
RESOURCES & LINKS
Where to Start:
Connect with Me:
Connor MacIvor | Connor with Honor Realtor | Retired LAPD | AI Growth Architect DRE# 01238257 Honored to Serve. Here to Protect Your Equity.
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Yes, I earn referral fees when you work with agents I recommend. But unlike national platforms like Zillow or Realtor.com, I personally know and vet every single agent in my network of 17 trusted professionals.
My recommendations are based on YOUR specific needs and the complexity of your situation—not who pays the highest referral fee. I live in Santa Clarita Valley, and my reputation in this community depends on your success. Local accountability matters.
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