2025 Real Estate predictions by The First Responder Realtor in Santa Clarita CA
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2025 Real Estate predictions by The First Responder Realtor in Santa Clarita CA
Connor “with Honor” MacIvor - January 1, 2025** Tags: [Santa Clarita real estate](/-/Blog/tag/Santa Clarita real estate), [Santa Clarita homes for sale](/-/Blog/tag/Santa Clarita homes for sale), [2025 real estate predictions](/-/Blog/tag/2025 real estate predictions), [Connor with Honor](/-/Blog/tag/Connor with Honor), [first responder realtor](/-/Blog/tag/first responder realtor), [Santa Clarita Valley](/-/Blog/tag/Santa Clarita Valley), [Valencia homes](/-/Blog/tag/Valencia homes), [Stevenson Ranch real estate](/-/Blog/tag/Stevenson Ranch real estate), [Canyon Country homes](/-/Blog/tag/Canyon Country homes), [Castaic real estate](/-/Blog/tag/Castaic real estate), [Agua Dulce hom](/-/Blog/tag/Agua Dulce hom) ** 0 Comments | Add Comment Good day, everybody, and welcome to January 1st, 2025! I’m excited to have you here, sharing in what I believe is going to be a tremendously interesting year on many different fronts. Let’s talk about some expectations in the real estate market, particularly in and around the Santa Clarita Valley, and then dive into a broader discussion about how artificial intelligence—in its narrow, general, and yes, even superintelligent forms—could potentially impact our world as we move forward. But before we delve into real estate and AI, let me share some insights on personal transformation, as I know many of you have been curious about my journey losing 135 pounds of body fat. That story has shaped my perspective and taught me to embrace the concept of continually failing forward—because success, in many ways, is all about failing less and learning from every stumble along the way.
I want to weave everything together so that you come away from this discussion with a fresh perspective, excited about the possibilities in 2025 and equipped with critical thinking strategies that can help you in whatever endeavors you may pursue, whether that be a new personal fitness routine, investigating the real estate market, or preparing for significant changes in the employment landscape due to evolving technology. Grab your favorite beverage, settle in for a bit, and remember that if you’d like more local Santa Clarita real estate information, my team and I are happy to help at
Now, I want to keep this clean, yet robust enough for your reading enjoyment, so I’ll be expanding these ideas to a length that should thoroughly give you plenty to sink your teeth into—think of it like a New Year’s feast for your mind. Without further ado, let’s launch into it!
1. Welcome to 2025: Setting the Stage
It’s the very start of a brand-new year. There’s an electric sense of possibility in the air, the kind that comes around when everyone is setting goals, making resolutions, and preparing to tackle new challenges. Maybe you’re someone who has never set foot in a gym for the last 300 days, and now you’re thinking, “This is it! I’m going to start going to the gym every day!” Perhaps you’re deciding that 2025 is the perfect time to finally make your first home purchase, or maybe you’re planning on listing a property you’ve held onto for quite a while. Whatever the case, the turning of the calendar is an ideal time to reflect and strategize.
I’d like to propose a mindset to carry you through this year: the approach of progress over perfection. Whether you’re looking to purchase real estate or lose weight (or any other major life shift), you’re going to slip up. You’re going to make mistakes. The key is recognizing that falling down or messing up at times is just part of the process. Most people fall off track because they can’t forgive themselves for those inevitable failures. But I’m urging you, right from the start, to recognize that stumbles happen, and they’re not the end of the journey. That single shift in mindset—to keep forgiving yourself and keep moving—might be the best resolution you ever make.
2. My Personal Weight Loss Journey and the Power of Fasting
Before we dive into real estate markets, let me share a slice of my personal health and wellness story. I torched off 135 pounds of body fat, and trust me, it wasn’t a walk in the park. I started with a 65-inch waist and a scale-tipping 365 pounds. That’s not an easy place to be. I’m 6’1” tall, so carrying all that extra weight was taxing on my knees, my back, and my overall well-being. I’d tried countless diets, gone through multiple day “resets” every new year, but each time, I’d find a way to sabotage my efforts.
Then, one day—it wasn’t the first of the year; there was nothing particularly symbolic about the date—I made a decision. I realized that the difference between all my past attempts and what I needed to do next was quite simple: forgive my own mistakes. I started focusing on fasting, which I’d initially found radical. Fasting? As in not eating for several days at a stretch? Isn’t that dangerous? Well, obviously, you should always consult your doctor before engaging in any drastic changes, especially if you’re on medication. But in my case, I found that extended fasting, combined with shorter feeding windows, accelerated my fat loss.
Fasting not only helped me drop pounds, but it gave me a chance to reflect on my relationship with food. I realized how often I was eating for reasons completely unrelated to actual hunger—stress, boredom, celebration, or even sadness. Stripping away the constant cycle of daily meals gave me mental clarity. I soon grew comfortable with the concept of dryness in my schedule—dry fasting and water fasting both became tools to help me examine my personal discipline. And discipline, ironically enough, is crucial whether we’re talking about fitness, finance, or real estate.
Today, well over a hundred pounds lighter, I can attest to the power of forgiveness and the power of committing to a plan—even if it means stepping outside your comfort zone. If you’re someone who wants to investigate fasting or any other major lifestyle shift, do your research. And I’d emphasize, that same approach—doing the research—applies heavily to the real estate market as well!
3. Shifts in the Real Estate World: Why 2025 Is Exciting
So, you might be wondering what’s in store for real estate as 2025 begins. In my experience working in Santa Clarita and other SoCal communities, the beginning of the year is a time when many new listings start to pop up. It’s akin to the phenomenon you see at gyms: the number of participants surges in January. People want a fresh start, whether it’s about health or relocating to a new home, or perhaps investing in property.
Higher Inventory Levels. Right now, Santa Clarita is sitting around 450 active listings. That’s covering Acton, Agua Dulce, Canyon Country, Castaic, Newhall, Saugus, Stevenson Ranch, and Valencia. Just a couple of months back, at the end of 2024, we had around 550 active listings. We’re in a slight lull, but I fully anticipate that number to climb as more sellers come out of holiday hibernation and decide they’re ready to list. January, February, and March can lay the groundwork for a busy spring and summer market—generally the time we see the most real estate movement. More listings, after all, means more competition among sellers, which can play to the advantage of you, the buyer.
Stable Yet Significant Buyer Activity. Alongside the new wave of listings, I anticipate a boost in buyer activity as well. Folks are always “waiting to see what’s going to happen with interest rates” or “waiting for the right time,” but many people decided in the tail end of 2024 that 2025 would be their year to make that move. Perhaps they’ve gotten a promotion, or have saved up enough to afford a down payment, or just realized it’s time to upsize or downsize.
Interest Rates and the 10-Year Bond. Will interest rates change drastically in 2025? My gut says we’ll see some fluctuations, but overall, not a massive shift from where we’ve been. Interest rates, while influenced by many factors, have a strong correlation with the 10-year bond market. It’s not solely about the Fed rate, despite what you may hear on the evening news. Yes, the Fed rate can sway how banks handle their own liquidity and short-term lending, but mortgage rates primarily track the 10-year bond’s performance. If that bond remains stable, we may not see the big swings that so many people fear.
I will say, however, that uncertainty in the world—from political shifts to natural disasters—can certainly rattle bond markets. So, there’s always a chance of interest rate fluctuation. At the moment, though, there’s no widespread consensus that we’re going to see them either plummet or skyrocket. As always, keep your eyes and ears open—and do your due diligence by talking to multiple mortgage professionals to find out what’s realistic for your unique situation.
4. The Value of a Local Real Estate Agent
There’s a ton of information on the web about buying and selling real estate, but so much of it is syndicated. I’m talking about the big sites, the ones that start with “Z” or the major real estate aggregator sites that promise you “the best valuations” and purport to have “all the latest data.” The trouble, in my experience, is that they can be easily manipulated by algorithms that feed you what they think you want to see. AI (artificial intelligence) is playing a large role in how those sites deliver data.
If you do a quick search on social media for “homes in Santa Clarita,” you may suddenly notice your feeds filling up with “deals in Santa Clarita,” “Top agent in Santa Clarita,” or “Neighborhood tours in Canyon Country.” AI is basically capturing your interest and shoving more content at you. Now, that’s not necessarily bad in principle, but it can create echo chambers. You’ll get funneled into a perspective that might not match the ground truth. That’s why I always recommend connecting with a local agent.
If your interest is in Santa Clarita, try my site, SantaClaritaOpenHouses.com. You’ll find it’s not just about listing homes; it’s about diving deeper into the local stats, local trends, and local knowledge that you can’t always glean from a syndicated website. I and my team are proud to talk about the real estate market in a straightforward, practical manner. We’re big on client education. We want you to understand why a house might be priced a certain way, what the local developments are, and how the local inventory is trending.
Remember, if you’re browsing around for an agent, listen for how they educate you. Are they telling you about local Mello-Roos taxes? Are they informing you about HOAs? Are they breaking down how to interpret comps (comparable sales)? Are they forward-looking about how developments might affect traffic patterns or home values in the area? A local agent who invests in your knowledge is a far better partner than a national aggregator algorithm that might say your home is worth $X. Then, on a competitor’s website, it’s suddenly $X+10,000 or $X-20,000.
When valuations differ wildly among sites, that’s a sign that behind-the-scenes manipulations (or at least different analytics) are going on. Real estate data is typically drawn from the same local or regional multiple listing service (MLS). If the aggregator sites are truly pulling from that same source, you might expect their valuations or “estimates” to be more or less similar. But that’s rarely the case.
5. Commission Structures and Negotiations in 2025
In 2025, we’re hearing more and more about how commissions for real estate agents might be changing. Lawsuits, negotiations, and discussions about “transparent” commissions have all been in the news. Many online platforms or discount brokerages are emphasizing a reduction in commission. Here’s the key: Always read your agreement.
A real estate contract isn’t simply a handshake—though it’d be nice if we could revert to a time where word was truly bond. But in this day and age, you need the specifics. If someone is telling you that you’re going to get some unicorn-level service—maybe they’re promising the sun, the moon, and the stars—ask them to put it in writing. Sure, it’s one thing for an agent to say, “I’m going to bring you a Pegasus with golden wings to fly from house to house,” but at the end of the day, if that’s not documented, it’s basically just fluff.
When you sign a Buyer-Broker Agreement or a Listing Agreement, check how long it lasts, what specific properties it applies to, and what fees or commissions are spelled out. In the state of California, buyer agreements often have a 90-day maximum, though it can be extended by mutual consent. As a buyer, you want to be absolutely clear on whether you’re locked into paying a commission if you end up writing an offer on a property that isn’t served by that particular agent. Clarity is your friend.
Should the agent talk in circles, or you sense you’re not receiving a direct answer, that’s a red flag. My personal approach is reminiscent of the old “Joe Friday” from Dragnet: “Just the facts.” I present data. I let you, the client, verify it in multiple ways. And if you decide we’re a good match, I’d love to represent you. If you want to interview other agents, by all means, go for it. That’s healthy. You’ll see who resonates most strongly with your needs, your personality, and your real estate goals.
6. Mello-Roos and Homeowners Associations (HOAs)
Mello-Roos Taxes
If you’ve done any searching in the Santa Clarita Valley, you’ve likely encountered the term “Mello-Roos.” These are special property taxes that fund infrastructure improvements, such as schools, roads, water lines, and more, typically in newer developments. Many neighborhoods built after the early-to-mid-1990s carry these taxes. Some developments have Mello-Roos that expire after a set period—maybe 20 to 25 years—while others continue on in different forms.
What does this mean for you? If you’re a buyer, you want to factor these taxes into your monthly payment. It’s not just a mortgage and homeowner’s insurance you’re paying for—Mello-Roos could add a few hundred dollars (sometimes more) to your monthly outlay. Depending on the property, it can be well worth it. Newer communities often have top-notch amenities, brand-new schools, or well-maintained roads. But you should go in with eyes wide open.
HOAs
Now, HOAs (Homeowners Associations) are a bit of a love-hate topic for many prospective buyers. Some folks love them for their ability to keep neighborhoods well-maintained. Others see them as meddling enforcers with strict rules on what color you can paint your shutters or how many pets you can have. Whichever side you lean toward, it’s important to do your homework.
As a real estate professional, I point my clients to the right resources to gather these details. Typically, during escrow, you’ll receive the HOA documents. But you can often do a bit of detective work before you get that far, especially if you know the right questions to ask. And by all means, you should ask those questions.
7. Interest Rates and the Economy: The 2025 Outlook
I touched briefly on interest rates earlier, but let’s delve a little deeper. Many of you are probably wondering if 2025 will be the year the rates finally drop to an unbelievably low level. The short answer? Probably not. But we’ll more than likely see a stable environment where the 10-year bond keeps rates at moderate, manageable levels. Unless there’s a major global incident or crisis that spooks investors into or out of bonds, we should expect a fairly steady pattern.
Why does this matter for you? Because if you’re a buyer, you might want to get off the fence. Over the years, many clients have told me, “I’m waiting for rates to go down.” But ironically, if rates do go down significantly, you’ll have a flood of other buyers jumping into the market, thus driving up competition and possibly prices as well. Alternatively, if you get in at a decent rate now and it happens to go down, you can always refinance.
Meanwhile, sellers may see a bit more competition from January through the summer, as that’s peak listing season. If you’re a seller, especially in the Santa Clarita Valley, keep an eye on the market data. Overpricing a home in a more competitive environment is a risk. Price realistically, and you’re more likely to see offers roll in.
8. Negotiating Like a Pro: Lessons from Law Enforcement
Fun fact: before I became a full-time real estate professional, I served as a police officer. Now, I can tell you this: negotiating with someone who doesn’t want to go to jail can be quite tricky—but it taught me the fundamentals of reading a person, staying calm in high-pressure situations, and understanding motivations. Compared to that, negotiating a real estate deal is pretty tame!
In real estate, negotiations often revolve around price, closing costs, contingencies, and potential repairs. My strategy is to come armed with data. If you’re my buyer client, we’ll look at how long a property has been on the market. If it’s been sitting for 60 days in a market where the average property sells in 21, that suggests we might be able to come in lower or request more concessions.
Likewise, if you’re my seller client, we’ll analyze the comps meticulously—prices of similar, recently sold homes in your neighborhood. That sets a realistic expectation for the range we can consider. Then, if a buyer comes in low, we can demonstrate that your home is worth more, based on the facts. It’s not emotional; it’s purely about the data.
9. Artificial Intelligence: The Big Disruptor
Now, let’s talk about AI. We’ve discussed how aggregator real estate sites and social media platforms use AI to feed you targeted ads once you start searching for homes. But let’s take a step back: What is AI, and why should you care?
Artificial Intelligence, in its current form, is largely about pattern recognition and data analytics at scale. It can read massive amounts of data, find correlations, and make predictions. It’s only going to get more advanced. The talk of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and Artificial Superintelligence might sound futuristic, but consider that even a decade ago, some of today’s technologies seemed the stuff of science fiction.
My advice? Become curious. Spend time learning the basics of how AI influences search engines, real estate recommendations, and social media content. That awareness alone can make a difference in how you interpret the listings you see and how you decide which professionals to trust.
10. Critical Thinking: Your Armor Against the Noise
At the heart of this conversation—real estate, AI, or even my personal journey with fasting—lies one principle: critical thinking. When you see a piece of information, particularly if it’s pushing you to make a certain decision, ask why. Who benefits if you believe “prices are about to skyrocket” or “interest rates are going to plummet tomorrow”? Are they selling you something? Sometimes, the answer is simply that they want your business, and that’s perfectly fine—as long as they can back it with verifiable facts.
In real estate, I try to present everything in a way that you can double-check. If we’re pricing your home at $700,000, I’ll show you the comps for homes that recently sold at $680,000, $695,000, and $720,000, for instance. I’ll break down the differences in square footage, lot size, amenities, and condition. That way, you can see how I arrived at a recommended price. If you disagree, we can talk about it and maybe adjust—but at least we both have a baseline rooted in reality.
The same goes for AI: if a website or platform is telling you something and you’re not sure, try cross-referencing with another source. If you see widely conflicting information, dig deeper. That doesn’t necessarily mean one or the other is correct or incorrect, but it does mean you need more context.
11. Putting It All Together: 2025 as a Launchpad
So, here we are, right at the beginning of 2025. What do I personally expect as we move forward through the year in real estate?
I’ll add that forgiveness—the same principle I applied to my personal fitness journey—matters in the world of real estate. If you’re trying to buy a home and you lose out on a couple of offers, don’t let it derail you. Recognize that sometimes the timing and competition can be fierce. Learn from the experience, regroup, and keep at it. If you’re selling and you didn’t get the offers you hoped for, talk with your agent about whether you might have to adjust the price, stage differently, or wait for a better season. Mistakes happen, but they’re not the finale—they’re simply stepping stones to eventual success.
12. The Importance of Daily Updates and Consistent Engagement
One of my personal commitments is to do a seven-day broadcast, every single day, focusing on a different city in Santa Clarita Valley. That means I’m consistently plugged into what’s happening in the local real estate scene. I’ll talk about market changes, new developments, or interesting community events that might affect local neighborhoods. If you find yourself needing regular updates, you can count on me and my team.
Moreover, if you’re at all curious about what’s available right now—or you’re just looking for some real estate education—feel free to visit
SantaClaritaOpenHouses.com. We keep things as up-to-date as possible. You can browse current listings, see what open houses are happening in the area, and even get in touch with me or my colleagues if you want deeper insights.
13. Fending Off Fake Data
One thing I predict is that we’ll see more “fake” real estate data cropping up online—whether intentionally misleading or just poorly researched. Some unscrupulous entities might try to manipulate market perceptions to create false urgency. “Prices will double in the next two months—buy now!” type claims. Or the opposite: “Everything is going to crash tomorrow, so sell now, or you’ll miss your chance!”
These extreme claims feed on fear, and fear is a powerful motivator. My recommendation is to keep calm, check multiple reputable sources, and talk to local experts who can show you actual numbers from the local MLS. Real estate moves more slowly than many people realize. Even the fastest changes take weeks or months to unfold. Rarely do home values jump or drop dramatically overnight (barring catastrophic events).
Additionally, watch out for “predictive AI tools” that might be hyperbolic. The best AI in the world can’t predict a sudden shift in interest rates or an unexpected geo-political event with absolute certainty. Use AI to assist in your data gathering, but temper it with critical thinking and good old-fashioned local know-how.
14. Preparing for an AI-Enhanced Future (Even If It Feels Strange)
Let’s circle back to AI for a moment. If you’re working for a company that hasn’t mentioned AI at all, it might be worth quietly poking around to see what’s on the horizon. You don’t want to be caught off guard if your job’s processes are suddenly automated or if new tech tools start changing the way you perform daily tasks.
Real estate is by no means immune. We’re seeing AI used in everything from automated valuations to property management chatbots. Some forward-thinking companies are even using AI-driven cameras to conduct remote open houses, analyze foot traffic, or measure buyer interest. If you’re an agent, you might find yourself needing to adapt to these tools to stay relevant. If you’re a buyer or seller, it could empower you with more data, faster. But always remember: data is not wisdom.
True wisdom comes from combining data (the “what”) with context (the “why”). A capable local agent or industry expert can help interpret that “why.” They can tell you about neighborhood quirks, such as a local road that’s about to undergo major construction or a planned commercial center that could raise property values. That kind of context is rarely captured by AI.
15. Final Thoughts and Well-Wishes for 2025
As we wrap up this extended discussion, I want you to remember a few core points:
I’m Connor with Honor, and I’ve traveled my own winding road—shedding pounds and learning that discipline in one area of life can carry over to another, whether that’s real estate or tackling new technology. I hope this discussion about 2025’s real estate outlook, the potential role of AI, and the importance of personal forgiveness (and resilience) sparks some inspiration.
You can find more detailed, Santa Clarita–specific content at SantaClaritaOpenHouses.com. Feel free to drop in there any time for updates on the latest listings, community insights, and more.
If you like daily updates, remember I’m on a seven-day broadcast schedule, talking about each city in the Santa Clarita Valley—discussing new developments, hot listings, and the local culture. If you’re ready to step into the market in 2025, whether buying, selling, or simply exploring, my team and I are here to help you make an informed decision rooted in real data.
So, with all that said, let’s lift our glasses (be it water, green juice, or your beverage of choice) and toast to this new year that’s brimming with possibilities. Whether it’s your personal fitness journey or your desire to find that dream home, or even if you’re just exploring how AI might shape your career, 2025 can be the year you make meaningful progress.
Thank you for spending this time with me. I’m wishing you a phenomenal 2025 filled with growth, achievements, and perhaps a bit of well-earned rest when you need it. Remember, every day is a chance to forgive, to move forward, and to take another small step toward your goals—no matter how big or small they are.
I bid you good day—I’m Connor with Honor, and I’ll be seeing you tomorrow for another update, another slice of wisdom, and another conversation about the exciting roads ahead. If you need real estate assistance or just want to learn more about Santa Clarita, head over to SantaClaritaOpenHouses.com. Take care, stay curious, and, as always, keep moving forward.
Over and out.
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